Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
18.93%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
19.26%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
20.20%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1153 | 21.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7301 | 82.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1167 | 14.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0118 | 6.68*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0298 | 8.46*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9649 | 233.02*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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