V-Lab
Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
14.88%
increased by 1.45%
1 Week
15.83%
increased by 2.40%
1 Month
17.77%
increased by 4.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1153 | 21.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7298 | 82.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1169 | 14.03*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0118 | 6.66*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0299 | 8.47*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9648 | 231.75*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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