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V-Lab

Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

14.88%

increased by 1.45%

1 Week

15.83%

increased by 2.40%

1 Month

17.77%

increased by 4.34%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1153
21.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7298
82.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1169
14.03***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0118
6.66***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0299
8.47***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9648
231.75***

Persistence:

0.904

Half-life:

7 days