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V-Lab

Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

18.93%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

19.26%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Month

20.20%

increased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1153
21.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7301
82.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1167
14.00***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0118
6.68***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0298
8.46***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9649
233.02***

Persistence:

0.904

Half-life:

7 days