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V-Lab

Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

14.27%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

15.07%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

17.48%

increased by 2.53%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

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graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.

σ

GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0719
5.29***
αARCH0.1452
7.16***
βGARCH0.8255
42.80***

0.971

Persistence

23d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0719
5.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1452
7.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8255
42.80***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days