V-Lab
Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.27%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
15.07%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
17.48%
increased by 2.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0719 | 5.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1452 | 7.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8255 | 42.80*** |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0719 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1452 | 7.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8255 | 42.80*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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