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V-Lab

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

18.72%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

18.85%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

19.35%

increased by 0.48%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~126 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0175
4.40***
αARCH0.0790
9.93***
βGARCH0.9155
118.07***

0.995

Persistence

126d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0175
4.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0790
9.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9155
118.07***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

126 days