V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
21.32%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
21.41%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
21.76%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 128 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~128 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0174 | 4.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.0789 | 9.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9157 | 117.96*** |
0.995
Persistence128d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0174 | 4.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0789 | 9.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9157 | 117.96*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
128 days
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