Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
18.72%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
18.85%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
19.35%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~126 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0175 | 4.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0790 | 9.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9155 | 118.07*** |
0.995
Persistence126d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0175 | 4.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0790 | 9.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9155 | 118.07*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
126 days
Other Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices