MSCI World GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.80%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
10.95%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
11.46%
increased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0123 | 24.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1098 | 45.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8772 | 372.95*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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