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V-Lab
V-Lab

MSCI World GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

9.56%

increased by 1.36%

1 Week

9.75%

increased by 1.55%

1 Month

10.43%

increased by 2.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI World GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0130
6.35***
αARCH0.1085
11.68***
βGARCH0.8765
94.53***

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0130
6.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1085
11.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8765
94.53***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days