V-Lab
MSCI World GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
9.56%
increased by 1.36%
1 Week
9.75%
increased by 1.55%
1 Month
10.43%
increased by 2.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0130 | 6.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.1085 | 11.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8765 | 94.53*** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0130 | 6.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1085 | 11.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8765 | 94.53*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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