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Dow Jones Transportation Average GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

17.39%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

17.65%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

18.50%

increased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

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graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days.

σ

GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0420
5.62***
αARCH0.0826
8.13***
βGARCH0.8973
83.26***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0420
5.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0826
8.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8973
83.26***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days