Nikkei 225 GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
22.91%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
22.99%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Month
23.25%
decreased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0612 | 6.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1120 | 9.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8621 | 74.16*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0612 | 6.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1120 | 9.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8621 | 74.16*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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