Nikkei 225 GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
37.37%
increased by 1.82%
1 Week
36.83%
increased by 1.28%
1 Month
34.93%
decreased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0613 | 25.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1126 | 39.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8615 | 295.15*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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