V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.76%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
16.02%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
16.99%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 04:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0258 | 22.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1030 | 38.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8880 | 369.55*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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