V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
13.95%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
14.34%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
15.73%
increased by 1.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 334% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0296 | 7.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0914 | 7.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9061 | 98.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5725 | 5.13*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1271 | 7.91*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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