V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
16.08%
1 Week
16.39%
1 Month
17.47%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 335% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0296 | 7.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.0913 | 7.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9063 | 98.95*** |
| γleverage | 0.5729 | 5.13*** |
| δpower | 1.1270 | 7.91*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0296 | 7.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0913 | 7.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9063 | 98.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5729 | 5.13*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1270 | 7.91*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
Other FTSE MIB Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices