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FTSE MIB Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

16.08%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

16.39%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

17.47%

increased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC

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graph of FTSE MIB Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 335% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 335% more than positive returnsδ = 1.13 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0296
7.71***
αARCH0.0913
7.82***
βGARCH0.9063
98.95***
γleverage0.5729
5.13***
δpower1.1270
7.91***

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0296
7.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0913
7.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9063
98.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5729
5.13***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1270
7.91***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days