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V-Lab

OMX Stockholm 30 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

18.24%

increased by 2.77%

1 Week

18.39%

increased by 2.92%

1 Month

18.95%

increased by 3.48%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 04:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of OMX Stockholm 30 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.41 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.41 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0279
7.28***
αARCH0.0796
8.73***
βGARCH0.9106
121.89***
γleverage0.5217
5.61***
δpower1.4139
11.23***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0279
7.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0796
8.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9106
121.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5217
5.61***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4139
11.23***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days