V-Lab
OMX Stockholm 30 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
18.24%
1 Week
18.39%
1 Month
18.95%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 04:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.41 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0279 | 7.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0796 | 8.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9106 | 121.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.5217 | 5.61*** |
| δpower | 1.4139 | 11.23*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0279 | 7.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0796 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9106 | 121.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5217 | 5.61*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4139 | 11.23*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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