V-Lab
OMX Stockholm 30 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
11.48%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
11.92%
increased by 0.45%
1 Month
13.46%
increased by 1.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 04:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.41 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0281 | 29.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0795 | 34.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9106 | 486.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5224 | 22.40*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4119 | 44.85*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices