OMX Stockholm 30 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
14.83%
1 Week
15.12%
1 Month
16.14%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 05:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.41 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0278 | 7.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0794 | 8.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9109 | 122.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.5231 | 5.61*** |
| δpower | 1.4106 | 11.21*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0278 | 7.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9109 | 122.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5231 | 5.61*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4106 | 11.21*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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