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V-Lab

OMX Stockholm 30 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

12.52%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

12.91%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

14.28%

increased by 1.32%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of OMX Stockholm 30 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.41 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.41 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0279
7.26***
αARCH0.0798
8.74***
βGARCH0.9105
121.59***
γleverage0.5217
5.61***
δpower1.4132
11.22***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0279
7.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0798
8.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9105
121.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5217
5.61***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4132
11.22***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days