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V-Lab

NASDAQ 100 APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

16.67%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

17.06%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

18.46%

increased by 1.29%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ 100 APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 296% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.10 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 296% more than positive returnsδ = 1.10 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0324
8.41***
αARCH0.0921
11.61***
βGARCH0.9070
127.76***
γleverage0.5561
6.19***
δpower1.0982
8.94***

0.982

Persistence

39d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0324
8.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0921
11.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9070
127.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5561
6.19***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0982
8.94***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days