V-Lab
NASDAQ 100 APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
16.67%
1 Week
17.06%
1 Month
18.46%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 296% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.10 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0324 | 8.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.0921 | 11.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9070 | 127.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.5561 | 6.19*** |
| δpower | 1.0982 | 8.94*** |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0324 | 8.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0921 | 11.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9070 | 127.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5561 | 6.19*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0982 | 8.94*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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