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Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

17.25%

increased by 2.59%

1 Week

17.45%

increased by 2.79%

1 Month

18.12%

increased by 3.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.17 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0329
8.93***
αARCH0.0694
4.12***
βGARCH0.9173
76.65***
γleverage0.7423
3.77***
δpower1.1730
10.25***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0329
8.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0694
4.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9173
76.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7423
3.77***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1730
10.25***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days