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V-Lab

Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.97%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

16.23%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Month

17.12%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0330
35.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0693
16.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9173
306.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7430
15.01***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1743
40.89***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days