V-Lab
Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
17.25%
1 Week
17.45%
1 Month
18.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0329 | 8.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.0694 | 4.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9173 | 76.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.7423 | 3.77*** |
| δpower | 1.1730 | 10.25*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0329 | 8.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0694 | 4.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9173 | 76.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7423 | 3.77*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1730 | 10.25*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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