Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.97%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
16.23%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
17.12%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0330 | 35.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0693 | 16.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9173 | 306.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7430 | 15.01*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1743 | 40.89*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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