Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.67%

increased by 1.73%

1 Week

14.87%

increased by 1.93%

1 Month

15.56%

increased by 2.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0967
4.30***
αARCH0.0893
11.28***
βGARCH0.8924
101.06***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
0.24

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0967
4.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0893
11.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8924
101.06***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
0.24

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days