V-Lab
Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.67%
increased by 1.73%
1 Week
14.87%
increased by 1.93%
1 Month
15.56%
increased by 2.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0967 | 4.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0893 | 11.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8924 | 101.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.24 |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0967 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0893 | 11.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8924 | 101.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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