Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.40%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
16.54%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
17.02%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1051 | 4.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0892 | 11.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8928 | 101.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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