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V-Lab

NASDAQ Composite Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

15.87%

increased by 0.65%

1 Week

16.32%

increased by 1.10%

1 Month

17.66%

increased by 2.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7466
7.32***
αARCH0.0997
10.32***
βGARCH0.8635
72.08***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0074
0.26
γ20.0510
1.16
γ3-0.1755
-5.64***
γ40.2088
7.32***
γ5-0.1521
-5.92***
γ60.1096
3.86***
γ7-0.0650
-2.10**
γ80.0083
0.18

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7466
7.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0997
10.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8635
72.08***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0074
0.26
γ20.0510
1.16
γ3-0.1755
-5.64***
γ40.2088
7.32***
γ5-0.1521
-5.92***
γ60.1096
3.86***
γ7-0.0650
-2.10**
γ80.0083
0.18

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days