V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
15.62%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
16.12%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
17.58%
increased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7444 | 7.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.0999 | 10.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8631 | 71.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0064 | 0.22 |
| γ2 | 0.0533 | 1.21 |
| γ3 | -0.1779 | -5.72*** |
| γ4 | 0.2106 | 7.42*** |
| γ5 | -0.1532 | -5.99*** |
| γ6 | 0.1101 | 3.88*** |
| γ7 | -0.0645 | -2.07** |
| γ8 | 0.0084 | 0.18 |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7444 | 7.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0999 | 10.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8631 | 71.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0064 | 0.22 |
| γ2 | 0.0533 | 1.21 |
| γ3 | -0.1779 | -5.72*** |
| γ4 | 0.2106 | 7.42*** |
| γ5 | -0.1532 | -5.99*** |
| γ6 | 0.1101 | 3.88*** |
| γ7 | -0.0645 | -2.07** |
| γ8 | 0.0084 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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