V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
15.87%
increased by 0.65%
1 Week
16.32%
increased by 1.10%
1 Month
17.66%
increased by 2.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7466 | 7.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.0997 | 10.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8635 | 72.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0074 | 0.26 |
| γ2 | 0.0510 | 1.16 |
| γ3 | -0.1755 | -5.64*** |
| γ4 | 0.2088 | 7.32*** |
| γ5 | -0.1521 | -5.92*** |
| γ6 | 0.1096 | 3.86*** |
| γ7 | -0.0650 | -2.10** |
| γ8 | 0.0083 | 0.18 |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7466 | 7.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0997 | 10.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8635 | 72.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0074 | 0.26 |
| γ2 | 0.0510 | 1.16 |
| γ3 | -0.1755 | -5.64*** |
| γ4 | 0.2088 | 7.32*** |
| γ5 | -0.1521 | -5.92*** |
| γ6 | 0.1096 | 3.86*** |
| γ7 | -0.0650 | -2.10** |
| γ8 | 0.0083 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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