FTSE MIB Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
20.61%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
20.59%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
20.53%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5073 | 8.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.1058 | 9.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8704 | 74.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0312 | 5.92*** |
| γ2 | -0.0479 | -5.39*** |
| γ3 | 0.0240 | 2.51** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5073 | 8.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1058 | 9.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8704 | 74.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0312 | 5.92*** |
| γ2 | -0.0479 | -5.39*** |
| γ3 | 0.0240 | 2.51** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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