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V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

9.56%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

9.88%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

10.93%

increased by 1.05%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0386
9.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0963
9.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8818
83.54***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0005
1.04

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days