S&P/ASX 200 Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.56%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
9.88%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
10.93%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0386 | 9.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0963 | 9.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8818 | 83.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 1.04 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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