V-Lab
S&P/ASX 200 Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
12.18%
1 Week
11.96%
1 Month
11.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 109% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0213 | 8.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.1428 | 12.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8432 | 71.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.3054 | 7.75*** |
| δpower | 1.1655 | 7.74*** |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0213 | 8.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1428 | 12.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8432 | 71.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3054 | 7.75*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1655 | 7.74*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on Equity Indices