Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.82%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

10.96%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

11.44%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 01:02 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 9.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7994
3.53***
αARCH0.0798
9.13***
βGARCH0.9818
160.80***
νDF9.5728
1.24

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7994
3.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0798
9.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9818
160.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5728
1.24

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days