Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

9.47%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

9.68%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

10.38%

increased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 02:02 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 9.68 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.7983
3.57***
αscore0.0798
9.18***
βpersistence0.9818
161.83***
νDF9.6783
1.22

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.7983
3.57***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0798
9.18***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9818
161.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.6783
1.22

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days