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V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

10.88%

increased by 0.47%

1 Week

11.02%

increased by 0.61%

1 Month

11.49%

increased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8019
14.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0801
36.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9818
643.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5852
4.97***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days