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S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

8.87%

increased by 0.70%

1 Week

9.11%

increased by 0.94%

1 Month

9.93%

increased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8021
14.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0803
36.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9819
643.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5635
5.00***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days