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S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

10.05%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

10.22%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

10.83%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC

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graph of S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 9.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7989
3.55***
αARCH0.0799
9.15***
βGARCH0.9819
162.03***
νDF9.6153
1.24

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7989
3.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0799
9.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9819
162.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.6153
1.24

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days