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S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

10.34%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

10.50%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

11.06%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 9.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8003
3.53***
αARCH0.0801
9.14***
βGARCH0.9819
161.33***
νDF9.5965
1.24

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8003
3.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0801
9.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9819
161.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5965
1.24

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days