V-Lab
S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
8.87%
increased by 0.70%
1 Week
9.11%
increased by 0.94%
1 Month
9.93%
increased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8021 | 14.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0803 | 36.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9819 | 643.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5635 | 5.00*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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