S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
9.47%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
9.68%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
10.38%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 02:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 9.68 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.7983 | 3.57*** |
| αscore | 0.0798 | 9.18*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9818 | 161.83*** |
| νDF | 9.6783 | 1.22 |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.7983 | 3.57*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0798 | 9.18*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9818 | 161.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.6783 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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