S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.82%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
10.96%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
11.44%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 01:02 AM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 9.57 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7994 | 3.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0798 | 9.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9818 | 160.80*** |
| νDF | 9.5728 | 1.24 |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7994 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0798 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9818 | 160.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5728 | 1.24 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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