V-Lab
S&P/ASX 200 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.88%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
11.02%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
11.49%
increased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8019 | 14.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0801 | 36.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9818 | 643.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5852 | 4.97*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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