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Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

17.17%

increased by 1.05%

1 Week

17.30%

increased by 1.18%

1 Month

17.79%

increased by 1.67%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~115 daysv = 3.44 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.6477
2.76***
αARCH0.0541
20.36***
βGARCH0.9940
381.87***
νDF3.4440
23.44***

0.994

Persistence

115d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6477
2.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0541
20.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9940
381.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4440
23.44***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

115 days