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Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026

1 Day

18.46%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Week

18.63%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Month

19.28%

decreased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/13/2024

to

11/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Nov 13, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 290 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with ν = 7.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~290 daysν = 7.96 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run6.7820
1.40
αscore0.0812
15.42***
βpersistence0.9976
629.41***
νDF7.9566
2.28**

0.998

Persistence

290d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

6.7820
1.40
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0812
15.42***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9976
629.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9566
2.28**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

290 days