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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

18.94%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

19.03%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

19.41%

decreased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~114 daysv = 3.46 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.6457
2.76***
αARCH0.0541
20.26***
βGARCH0.9939
378.35***
νDF3.4593
22.96***

0.994

Persistence

114d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6457
2.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0541
20.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9939
378.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4593
22.96***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

114 days