Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026
1 Day
18.46%
1 Week
18.63%
1 Month
19.28%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Nov 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 290 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with ν = 7.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.7820 | 1.40 |
| αscore | 0.0812 | 15.42*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9976 | 629.41*** |
| νDF | 7.9566 | 2.28** |
0.998
Persistence290d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.7820 | 1.40 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0812 | 15.42*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 629.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9566 | 2.28** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
290 days
Other Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices