V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
17.17%
1 Week
17.30%
1 Month
17.79%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6477 | 2.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0541 | 20.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9940 | 381.87*** |
| νDF | 3.4440 | 23.44*** |
0.994
Persistence115d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6477 | 2.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0541 | 20.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9940 | 381.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4440 | 23.44*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
115 days
Other Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices