Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
17.32%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
17.73%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
19.30%
increased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 22% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0267 | 22.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1448 | 13.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9812 | 641.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0142 | -2.18** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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