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Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

16.67%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

17.08%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

18.68%

increased by 1.63%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 05:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0264
5.48***
αARCH0.1444
3.30***
βGARCH0.9814
162.72***
γleverage-0.0144
-0.56

0.981

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0264
5.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1444
3.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9814
162.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0144
-0.56

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days