V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
16.67%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
17.08%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
18.68%
increased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 05:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0264 | 5.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.1444 | 3.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9814 | 162.72*** |
| γleverage | -0.0144 | -0.56 |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0264 | 5.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1444 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9814 | 162.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0144 | -0.56 |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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