V-Lab
MSCI USA EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
12.84%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
13.05%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
13.79%
increased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0051 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1396 | 35.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9736 | 698.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1230 | -32.31*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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