MSCI USA EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
11.32%
increased by 0.52%
1 Week
11.58%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
12.51%
increased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0049 | 0.45 |
| αARCH | 0.1398 | 8.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9735 | 175.35*** |
| γleverage | -0.1231 | -8.09*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0049 | 0.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1398 | 8.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9735 | 175.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1231 | -8.09*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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