V-Lab
MSCI USA AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
13.25%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
13.50%
increased by 1.33%
1 Month
14.27%
increased by 2.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.58) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0998 | 7.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8718 | 58.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.5761 | 3.60*** |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0998 | 7.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8718 | 58.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5761 | 3.60*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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