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V-Lab

MSCI Europe AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

15.37%

increased by 1.31%

1 Week

15.55%

increased by 1.49%

1 Month

16.06%

increased by 2.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.64) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.1315
16.15***
βGARCH0.8227
113.93***
γleverage0.6422
10.24***

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1315
16.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8227
113.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6422
10.24***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days