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Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.74%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

16.88%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Month

17.29%

decreased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.59) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0261
1.99**
αARCH0.1151
7.45***
βGARCH0.8343
45.54***
γleverage0.5904
6.03***

0.949

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0261
1.99**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1151
7.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8343
45.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5904
6.03***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days