Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.74%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
16.88%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
17.29%
decreased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.59) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0261 | 1.99** |
| αARCH | 0.1151 | 7.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8343 | 45.54*** |
| γleverage | 0.5904 | 6.03*** |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0261 | 1.99** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1151 | 7.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8343 | 45.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5904 | 6.03*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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