V-Lab
Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
15.14%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
15.56%
increased by 1.41%
1 Month
16.75%
increased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2013 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7649 | 7.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.1181 | 6.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8388 | 40.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0030 | -2.04** |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7649 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1181 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8388 | 40.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0030 | -2.04** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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