V-Lab
Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.41%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
12.74%
increased by 0.45%
1 Month
13.78%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2013 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 9.57 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2440 | 2.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.1039 | 6.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9735 | 86.48*** |
| νDF | 9.5657 | 0.88 |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2440 | 2.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1039 | 6.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9735 | 86.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5657 | 0.88 |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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