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Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

17.73%

increased by 2.77%

1 Week

17.73%

increased by 2.77%

1 Month

17.73%

increased by 2.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2013 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 9.70 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.2499
2.86***
αscore0.1032
6.13***
βpersistence0.9736
88.27***
νDF9.7026
0.86

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.2499
2.86***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1032
6.13***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9736
88.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.7026
0.86

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days