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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

14.57%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

14.76%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

15.36%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2591
11.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1039
24.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9737
342.14***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4764
3.53***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days