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Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

13.91%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

14.13%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

14.86%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 9.56 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2477
2.81***
αARCH0.1039
6.13***
βGARCH0.9735
86.34***
νDF9.5617
0.88

0.973

Persistence

26d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2477
2.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1039
6.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9735
86.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5617
0.88

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days