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Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

19.28%

increased by 1.24%

1 Week

19.21%

increased by 1.17%

1 Month

18.95%

increased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2013 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 9.67 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2539
2.86***
αARCH0.1045
6.12***
βGARCH0.9733
87.25***
νDF9.6695
0.87

0.973

Persistence

26d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2539
2.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1045
6.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9733
87.25***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.6695
0.87

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days