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Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

14.03%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

14.08%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Month

14.47%

decreased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.7739
32.90***
γleverage0.2214
8.22***
λ₁tau intercept0.0219
1.80*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0995
2.73***
λ₃tau persistence0.8826
19.72***

0.885

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7739
32.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2214
8.22***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0219
1.80*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0995
2.73***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8826
19.72***

Persistence:

0.885

Half-life:

6 days