Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
18.92%
decreased by 1.65%
1 Week
18.42%
decreased by 2.15%
1 Month
17.04%
decreased by 3.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2013 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7742 | 33.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.2217 | 8.26*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0221 | 1.80* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0994 | 2.72*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8826 | 19.66*** |
0.885
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7742 | 33.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2217 | 8.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0221 | 1.80* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0994 | 2.72*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8826 | 19.66*** |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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