Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.34%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
15.92%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
16.83%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2013 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7728 | 102.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2249 | 32.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0203 | 2.54** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0951 | 3.29*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8889 | 25.07*** |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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