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Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

19.53%

increased by 6.39%

1 Week

18.96%

increased by 5.82%

1 Month

17.94%

increased by 4.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2013 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.7771
33.35***
γleverage0.2184
8.23***
λ₁tau intercept0.0222
1.80*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0987
2.71***
λ₃tau persistence0.8833
19.73***

0.886

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7771
33.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2184
8.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0222
1.80*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0987
2.71***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8833
19.73***

Persistence:

0.886

Half-life:

6 days