Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
18.11%
1 Week
18.13%
1 Month
18.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2013 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 397% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.96 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0494 | 6.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.1036 | 7.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8754 | 59.54*** |
| γleverage | 0.6846 | 6.44*** |
| δpower | 0.9573 | 5.93*** |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0494 | 6.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1036 | 7.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8754 | 59.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6846 | 6.44*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9573 | 5.93*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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