Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13.32%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
13.75%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
15.07%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2013 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 396% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.94 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0504 | 26.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1050 | 30.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8740 | 236.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6911 | 26.20*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9417 | 23.63*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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