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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

13.32%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

13.75%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

15.07%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2013 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 396% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.94 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0504
26.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1050
30.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8740
236.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6911
26.20***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9417
23.63***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

16 days