Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
55.56%
1 Week
55.23%
1 Month
54.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0211 | 6.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0977 | 11.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9023 | 119.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.2251 | 4.37*** |
| δpower | 1.6681 | 10.84*** |
0.993
Persistence92d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0211 | 6.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 11.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9023 | 119.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2251 | 4.37*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6681 | 10.84*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
92 days
Other Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices