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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

55.56%

decreased by 2.72%

1 Week

55.23%

decreased by 3.05%

1 Month

54.00%

decreased by 4.28%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~92 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0211
6.48***
αARCH0.0977
11.36***
βGARCH0.9023
119.67***
γleverage0.2251
4.37***
δpower1.6681
10.84***

0.993

Persistence

92d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0211
6.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0977
11.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9023
119.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2251
4.37***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6681
10.84***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

92 days