V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
83.37%
decreased by 6.21%
1 Week
80.58%
decreased by 9.00%
1 Month
71.08%
decreased by 18.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1122 | 5.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1003 | 10.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8624 | 67.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0231 | -0.60 |
| γ2 | 0.1308 | 2.35** |
| γ3 | -0.2524 | -6.74*** |
| γ4 | 0.2166 | 5.79*** |
| γ5 | -0.0926 | -2.29** |
| γ6 | 0.0146 | 0.39 |
| γ7 | 0.0458 | 1.32 |
| γ8 | -0.0434 | -1.22 |
| γ9 | -0.0119 | -0.41 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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