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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

25.50%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

25.40%

decreased by 1.50%

1 Month

25.05%

decreased by 1.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0486
5.67***
αARCH0.1005
10.15***
βGARCH0.8612
68.36***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0313
-0.81
γ20.1398
2.51**
γ3-0.2538
-6.88***
γ40.2202
6.01***
γ5-0.0996
-2.51**
γ60.0222
0.61
γ70.0409
1.21
γ8-0.0427
-1.23
γ9-0.0109
-0.38

0.962

Persistence

18d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0486
5.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1005
10.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8612
68.36***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0313
-0.81
γ20.1398
2.51**
γ3-0.2538
-6.88***
γ40.2202
6.01***
γ5-0.0996
-2.51**
γ60.0222
0.61
γ70.0409
1.21
γ8-0.0427
-1.23
γ9-0.0109
-0.38

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days