V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
63.65%
decreased by 3.47%
1 Week
61.62%
decreased by 5.50%
1 Month
54.80%
decreased by 12.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0687 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0997 | 10.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8625 | 67.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0303 | -0.78 |
| γ2 | 0.1396 | 2.50** |
| γ3 | -0.2544 | -6.83*** |
| γ4 | 0.2177 | 5.86*** |
| γ5 | -0.0938 | -2.33** |
| γ6 | 0.0152 | 0.41 |
| γ7 | 0.0461 | 1.34 |
| γ8 | -0.0439 | -1.24 |
| γ9 | -0.0115 | -0.40 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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