V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
38.37%
decreased by 1.73%
1 Week
37.48%
decreased by 2.62%
1 Month
34.55%
decreased by 5.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0719 | 5.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1006 | 10.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8605 | 66.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0271 | -0.71 |
| γ2 | 0.1344 | 2.44** |
| γ3 | -0.2513 | -6.83*** |
| γ4 | 0.2168 | 5.93*** |
| γ5 | -0.0956 | -2.42** |
| γ6 | 0.0189 | 0.52 |
| γ7 | 0.0421 | 1.25 |
| γ8 | -0.0418 | -1.20 |
| γ9 | -0.0119 | -0.42 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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