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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

38.37%

decreased by 1.73%

1 Week

37.48%

decreased by 2.62%

1 Month

34.55%

decreased by 5.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0719
5.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1006
10.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8605
66.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0271
-0.71
γ20.1344
2.44**
γ3-0.2513
-6.83***
γ40.2168
5.93***
γ5-0.0956
-2.42**
γ60.0189
0.52
γ70.0421
1.25
γ8-0.0418
-1.20
γ9-0.0119
-0.42

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days