V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
66.00%
increased by 2.61%
1 Week
63.83%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
56.50%
decreased by 6.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0806 | 5.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0994 | 9.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8620 | 66.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0288 | -0.75 |
| γ2 | 0.1376 | 2.48** |
| γ3 | -0.2530 | -6.84*** |
| γ4 | 0.2150 | 5.83*** |
| γ5 | -0.0900 | -2.26** |
| γ6 | 0.0119 | 0.33 |
| γ7 | 0.0479 | 1.41 |
| γ8 | -0.0451 | -1.29 |
| γ9 | -0.0105 | -0.36 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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