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V-Lab

MSCI Chile Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

23.96%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

24.76%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

27.22%

increased by 2.48%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Chile S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1076
5.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1238
12.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8446
77.83***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0009
0.08
γ20.0056
0.37
γ3-0.0166
-1.61
γ40.0316
3.62***
γ5-0.0365
-6.04***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

22 days