V-Lab
Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.95%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
17.25%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
18.26%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9409 | 7.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1036 | 12.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8797 | 99.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0082 | 3.72*** |
| γ2 | -0.0088 | -3.20*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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