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Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

19.30%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Week

19.49%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Month

20.13%

decreased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9365
7.18***
αARCH0.1031
12.12***
βGARCH0.8801
99.83***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0081
3.74***
γ2-0.0088
-3.23***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9365
7.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1031
12.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8801
99.83***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0081
3.74***
γ2-0.0088
-3.23***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days