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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

16.95%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

17.25%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

18.26%

increased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9409
7.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1036
12.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8797
99.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0082
3.72***
γ2-0.0088
-3.20***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days