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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

17.96%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

18.21%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

19.06%

increased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9444
7.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1042
12.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8791
98.98***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0082
3.70***
γ2-0.0088
-3.19***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days