Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.33%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
16.64%
increased by 1.39%
1 Month
17.74%
increased by 2.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9317 | 7.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.1028 | 12.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8804 | 100.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0080 | 3.71*** |
| γ2 | -0.0086 | -3.20*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9317 | 7.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1028 | 12.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8804 | 100.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0080 | 3.71*** |
| γ2 | -0.0086 | -3.20*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
Other Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices