V-Lab
Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5.10%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
5.13%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
5.19%
increased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4838 | 11.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0690 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7987 | 13.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0713 | 6.16*** |
| γ2 | -0.1021 | -5.63*** |
| γ3 | 0.0402 | 3.62*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
Other Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices