V-Lab
Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
5.86%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
5.85%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
5.82%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0097 | 2.00** |
| αARCH | 0.0520 | 3.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8749 | 18.21*** |
0.927
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0097 | 2.00** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0520 | 3.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8749 | 18.21*** |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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