V-Lab
FT Wilshire 5000 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.45%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
11.68%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
12.47%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0188 | 5.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.1057 | 10.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8787 | 93.57*** |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0188 | 5.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1057 | 10.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8787 | 93.57*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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