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V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

14.66%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

14.69%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

14.82%

decreased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0109
5.40***
αARCH0.0916
9.94***
βGARCH0.8980
94.56***

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0109
5.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0916
9.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8980
94.56***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days