S&P/TSX 60 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
14.66%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
14.69%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
14.82%
decreased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0109 | 5.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0916 | 9.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8980 | 94.56*** |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0109 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0916 | 9.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8980 | 94.56*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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