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V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

11.27%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

11.40%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Month

11.92%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0110
4.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8406
230.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1554
38.62***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0034
6.51***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0399
8.32***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9561
177.62***

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days