S&P/TSX 60 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.98%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
10.45%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
11.28%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0109 | 4.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8403 | 229.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1557 | 38.63*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0034 | 6.47*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0402 | 8.28*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9558 | 175.30*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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