V-Lab
S&P/TSX 60 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
11.27%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
11.40%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
11.92%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0110 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8406 | 230.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1554 | 38.62*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0034 | 6.51*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0399 | 8.32*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9561 | 177.62*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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