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S&P/TSX 60 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

13.51%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

13.45%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

13.34%

decreased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0108
1.16
βGARCH0.8409
66.58***
γleverage0.1552
10.14***
λ₁tau intercept0.0034
2.16**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0401
4.31***
λ₃tau persistence0.9559
92.34***

0.929

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0108
1.16
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8409
66.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1552
10.14***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0034
2.16**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0401
4.31***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9559
92.34***

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days