V-Lab
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.36%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
17.62%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
18.32%
increased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0247 | 1.45 |
| βGARCH | 0.8545 | 54.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.1069 | 5.80*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0102 | 2.65*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0280 | 3.53*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9672 | 108.27*** |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0247 | 1.45 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8545 | 54.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1069 | 5.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0102 | 2.65*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0280 | 3.53*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9672 | 108.27*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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