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V-Lab

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026

1 Day

20.96%

increased by 1.28%

1 Week

20.93%

increased by 1.25%

1 Month

20.95%

increased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/13/2024

to

11/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 13, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0247
1.47
βGARCH0.8568
55.46***
γleverage0.1055
5.79***
λ₁tau intercept0.0100
2.63***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0270
3.55***
λ₃tau persistence0.9683
112.72***

0.934

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0247
1.47
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8568
55.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1055
5.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0100
2.63***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0270
3.55***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9683
112.72***

Persistence:

0.934

Half-life:

10 days