Hong Kong Hang Seng Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
19.50%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
19.77%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
20.49%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0247 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8539 | 133.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1072 | 18.92*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0104 | 6.41*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0283 | 3.72*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9669 | 117.07*** |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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