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V-Lab

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

17.57%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

18.05%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

19.28%

increased by 1.55%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0247
5.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8538
133.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1074
18.90***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0104
6.41***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0283
3.72***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9669
116.93***

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days