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V-Lab

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

21.42%

increased by 5.94%

1 Week

21.12%

increased by 5.64%

1 Month

20.43%

increased by 4.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0247
1.46
βGARCH0.8548
54.79***
γleverage0.1067
5.80***
λ₁tau intercept0.0102
2.64***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0278
3.54***
λ₃tau persistence0.9673
109.11***

0.933

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0247
1.46
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8548
54.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1067
5.80***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0102
2.64***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0278
3.54***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9673
109.11***

Persistence:

0.933

Half-life:

10 days