V-Lab
FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
14.87%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
14.82%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Month
14.99%
decreased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8095 | 51.77*** |
| γleverage | 0.1909 | 8.11*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0127 | 2.47** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0657 | 4.17*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9281 | 55.33*** |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8095 | 51.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1909 | 8.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0127 | 2.47** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0657 | 4.17*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9281 | 55.33*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices