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FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

14.87%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

14.82%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Month

14.99%

decreased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8095
51.77***
γleverage0.1909
8.11***
λ₁tau intercept0.0127
2.47**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0657
4.17***
λ₃tau persistence0.9281
55.33***

0.905

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8095
51.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1909
8.11***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0127
2.47**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0657
4.17***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9281
55.33***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days