V-Lab
FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
21.39%
increased by 6.84%
1 Week
21.07%
increased by 6.52%
1 Month
20.71%
increased by 6.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8087 | 129.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1920 | 22.78*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0127 | 4.42*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0662 | 5.16*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9278 | 70.42*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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