Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

13.56%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

13.85%

increased by 0.79%

1 Month

14.90%

increased by 1.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~81 daysv = 7.22 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5975
1.42
αARCH0.0845
9.84***
βGARCH0.9915
160.67***
νDF7.2237
1.91*

0.992

Persistence

81d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5975
1.42
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0845
9.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9915
160.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2237
1.91*

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

81 days