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FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

19.09%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Week

19.21%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Month

19.66%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 daysv = 8.24 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.6465
1.58
αscore0.0858
10.35***
βpersistence0.9918
181.34***
νDF8.2439
1.61

0.992

Persistence

84d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.6465
1.58
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0858
10.35***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9918
181.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.2439
1.61

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days