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FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

11.64%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

12.01%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

13.30%

increased by 1.26%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 daysv = 7.23 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5979
1.42
αARCH0.0843
9.87***
βGARCH0.9916
161.63***
νDF7.2252
1.92*

0.992

Persistence

82d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5979
1.42
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0843
9.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9916
161.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2252
1.92*

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days