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FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

18.45%

increased by 2.92%

1 Week

18.60%

increased by 3.07%

1 Month

19.13%

increased by 3.60%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~80 daysv = 7.25 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5867
1.44
αARCH0.0845
9.77***
βGARCH0.9914
159.46***
νDF7.2454
1.89*

0.991

Persistence

80d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5867
1.44
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0845
9.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9914
159.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2454
1.89*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days