V-Lab
FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.68%
increased by 2.88%
1 Week
17.84%
increased by 3.04%
1 Month
18.46%
increased by 3.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6438 | 5.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0849 | 39.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 647.23*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2374 | 7.66*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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