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FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

17.68%

increased by 2.88%

1 Week

17.84%

increased by 3.04%

1 Month

18.46%

increased by 3.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6438
5.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0849
39.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9916
647.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2374
7.66***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days