V-Lab
FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
13.56%
1 Week
13.85%
1 Month
14.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5975 | 1.42 |
| αARCH | 0.0845 | 9.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9915 | 160.67*** |
| νDF | 7.2237 | 1.91* |
0.992
Persistence81d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5975 | 1.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0845 | 9.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9915 | 160.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2237 | 1.91* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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