FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
19.09%
1 Week
19.21%
1 Month
19.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.6465 | 1.58 |
| αscore | 0.0858 | 10.35*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9918 | 181.34*** |
| νDF | 8.2439 | 1.61 |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.6465 | 1.58 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0858 | 10.35*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9918 | 181.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.2439 | 1.61 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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