Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Swiss Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

11.79%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

12.07%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Month

12.99%

increased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Swiss Market Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 8.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0939
2.91***
αARCH0.1043
7.99***
βGARCH0.9746
99.45***
νDF8.3336
1.31

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0939
2.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1043
7.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9746
99.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3336
1.31

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days