Swiss Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
13.81%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
13.96%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
14.46%
increased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 8.34 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0938 | 2.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.1042 | 7.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9746 | 99.51*** |
| νDF | 8.3371 | 1.31 |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0938 | 2.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1042 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9746 | 99.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3371 | 1.31 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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