V-Lab
Swiss Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
11.79%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
12.07%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
12.99%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 8.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0939 | 2.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.1043 | 7.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9746 | 99.45*** |
| νDF | 8.3336 | 1.31 |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0939 | 2.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1043 | 7.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9746 | 99.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3336 | 1.31 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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