Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Swiss Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

12.41%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

12.65%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

13.43%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Swiss Market Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 8.41 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.0945
2.91***
αscore0.1045
7.97***
βpersistence0.9746
99.27***
νDF8.4088
1.29

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.0945
2.91***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1045
7.97***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9746
99.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4088
1.29

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days