Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Swiss Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

9.47%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

9.94%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

11.39%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Swiss Market Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 8.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0953
2.89***
αARCH0.1043
8.00***
βGARCH0.9749
99.73***
νDF8.3292
1.31

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0953
2.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1043
8.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9749
99.73***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3292
1.31

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days