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V-Lab

Swiss Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

13.81%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

13.96%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

14.46%

increased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/12/2024

to

10/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Swiss Market Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 8.34 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0938
2.92***
αARCH0.1042
7.98***
βGARCH0.9746
99.51***
νDF8.3371
1.31

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0938
2.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1042
7.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9746
99.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3371
1.31

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days