V-Lab
Swiss Market Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
10.08%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
10.92%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
13.06%
increased by 2.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.59) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0167 | 6.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1159 | 43.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8336 | 254.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5913 | 27.40*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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