V-Lab
Swiss Market Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.85%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Week
17.76%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Month
17.49%
decreased by 1.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.59) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0167 | 1.76* |
| αARCH | 0.1158 | 10.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8338 | 63.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.5900 | 6.85*** |
0.950
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0167 | 1.76* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1158 | 10.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8338 | 63.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5900 | 6.85*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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