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S&P BSE SENSEX Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

12.40%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

12.75%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

14.02%

increased by 1.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 320 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~320 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0101
2.52**
αARCH0.0906
9.64***
βGARCH0.9072
103.98***
γleverage0.3032
4.28***

0.998

Persistence

320d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0101
2.52**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0906
9.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9072
103.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3032
4.28***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

320 days