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S&P BSE SENSEX Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

17.65%

increased by 1.36%

1 Week

17.87%

increased by 1.58%

1 Month

18.73%

increased by 2.44%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 314 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~314 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0101
2.53**
αARCH0.0905
9.65***
βGARCH0.9073
104.23***
γleverage0.3031
4.30***

0.998

Persistence

314d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0101
2.53**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0905
9.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9073
104.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3031
4.30***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

314 days