S&P BSE SENSEX Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
17.65%
increased by 1.36%
1 Week
17.87%
increased by 1.58%
1 Month
18.73%
increased by 2.44%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 314 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~314 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0101 | 2.53** |
| αARCH | 0.0905 | 9.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9073 | 104.23*** |
| γleverage | 0.3031 | 4.30*** |
0.998
Persistence314d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0101 | 2.53** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0905 | 9.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9073 | 104.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3031 | 4.30*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
314 days
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