V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
12.85%
increased by 1.67%
1 Week
12.96%
increased by 1.78%
1 Month
13.32%
increased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.35) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0056 | 8.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0971 | 42.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8842 | 381.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3535 | 35.44*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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