V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
13.66%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
13.73%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
13.98%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.36) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0055 | 2.11** |
| αARCH | 0.0970 | 10.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8841 | 95.70*** |
| γleverage | 0.3556 | 8.91*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0055 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0970 | 10.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8841 | 95.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3556 | 8.91*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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