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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

10.89%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

11.10%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

11.78%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.35) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0056
8.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0972
42.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8840
382.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3540
35.52***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days