Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

13.66%

increased by 0.43%

1 Week

13.73%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

13.98%

increased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.36) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0055
2.11**
αARCH0.0970
10.61***
βGARCH0.8841
95.70***
γleverage0.3556
8.91***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0055
2.11**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0970
10.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8841
95.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3556
8.91***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days