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V-Lab

Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

44.08%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

45.04%

increased by 0.97%

1 Month

48.51%

increased by 4.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2367
3.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0299
5.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9617
158.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days