V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
44.08%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
45.04%
increased by 0.97%
1 Month
48.51%
increased by 4.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2367 | 3.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0299 | 5.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9617 | 158.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
Other Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices