Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
74.01%
increased by 5.36%
1 Week
79.75%
increased by 11.10%
1 Month
84.00%
increased by 15.35%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 12:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2125 | 1.84* |
| αARCH | 0.3180 | 3.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6400 | 3.15*** |
| γleverage | 0.0814 | 0.93 |
0.640
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2125 | 1.84* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3180 | 3.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6400 | 3.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0814 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.640
Half-life:
2 days
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