V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
51.10%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
50.84%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Month
49.84%
decreased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2015 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0327 | 2.25** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0273 | 11.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9781 | 472.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0273 | -7.56*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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