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Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

52.11%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

51.84%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

50.80%

decreased by 1.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2015 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 daysInverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0329
0.57
αARCH0.0274
3.08***
βGARCH0.9780
117.57***
γleverage-0.0274
-2.25**

0.992

Persistence

83d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0329
0.57
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0274
3.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9780
117.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0274
-2.25**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days