V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
52.11%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
51.84%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
50.80%
decreased by 1.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2015 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 daysInverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0329 | 0.57 |
| αARCH | 0.0274 | 3.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9780 | 117.57*** |
| γleverage | -0.0274 | -2.25** |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0329 | 0.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0274 | 3.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9780 | 117.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0274 | -2.25** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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