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V-Lab

Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

51.10%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

50.84%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Month

49.84%

decreased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2015 to Jul 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0327
2.25**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0273
11.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9781
472.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0273
-7.56***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days