V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
56.12%
increased by 2.93%
1 Week
57.90%
increased by 4.71%
1 Month
63.55%
increased by 10.36%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7343 | 1.42 |
| αARCH | 0.0594 | 2.23** |
| βGARCH | 0.9149 | 24.90*** |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7343 | 1.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0594 | 2.23** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9149 | 24.90*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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