V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
48.97%
increased by 0.44%
1 Week
51.50%
increased by 2.97%
1 Month
59.24%
increased by 10.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7717 | 5.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0607 | 8.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9127 | 95.10*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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