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V-Lab

Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

56.12%

increased by 2.93%

1 Week

57.90%

increased by 4.71%

1 Month

63.55%

increased by 10.36%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7343
1.42
αARCH0.0594
2.23**
βGARCH0.9149
24.90***

0.974

Persistence

27d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7343
1.42
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0594
2.23**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9149
24.90***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

27 days