Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
43.78%
1 Week
43.73%
1 Month
43.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 06:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 592 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | |
| αARCH | 0.0765 | 0.91 |
| βGARCH | 0.9988 | 656.69*** |
| νDF | 6.5893 | 0.90 |
0.999
Persistence592d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0765 | 0.91 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9988 | 656.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5893 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
592 days
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