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V-Lab

Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

43.78%

increased by 9.05%

1 Week

43.73%

increased by 9.00%

1 Month

43.53%

increased by 8.80%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 06:17 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2015 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 592 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~592 daysv = 6.59 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
αARCH0.0765
0.91
βGARCH0.9988
656.69***
νDF6.5893
0.90

0.999

Persistence

592d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0765
0.91
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9988
656.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5893
0.90

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

592 days