V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
35.61%
1 Week
35.57%
1 Month
35.43%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | |
| αARCH | 0.0715 | 1.01 |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 512.05*** |
| νDF | 6.3774 | 0.96 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 1.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 512.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3774 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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