Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
40.72%
1 Week
46.80%
1 Month
65.60%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1,175.8772 | 1.20 |
| αscore | 0.3191 | 31.57*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9990 | 1,209.44*** |
| νDF | 3.1338 | 19.22*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1,175.8772 | 1.20 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.3191 | 31.57*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,209.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1338 | 19.22*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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