National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
13.89%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
14.12%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
15.00%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 02:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 597 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.8549 | 6.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0867 | 79.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9988 | 5,019.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5983 | 12.99*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
597 days
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