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V-Lab

National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

16.37%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

16.56%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Month

17.29%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 614 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~614 daysv = 7.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run12.0647
1.58
αscore0.0872
19.79***
βpersistence0.9989
1,287.21***
νDF7.6550
3.22***

0.999

Persistence

614d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

12.0647
1.58
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0872
19.79***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9989
1,287.21***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6550
3.22***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

614 days