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V-Lab

National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

13.89%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

14.12%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

15.00%

increased by 1.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 02:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 597 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.8549
6.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0867
79.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9988
5,019.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5983
12.99***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

597 days