V-Lab
National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.31%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
12.57%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
13.56%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 604 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.8783 | 6.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0865 | 79.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 5,096.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5937 | 13.01*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
604 days
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