National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
16.37%
1 Week
16.56%
1 Month
17.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 614 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 12.0647 | 1.58 |
| αscore | 0.0872 | 19.79*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9989 | 1,287.21*** |
| νDF | 7.6550 | 3.22*** |
0.999
Persistence614d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 12.0647 | 1.58 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0872 | 19.79*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 1,287.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6550 | 3.22*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
614 days
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