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EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

13.66%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

13.83%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

14.45%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC

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graph of EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 daysv = 6.94 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7105
1.51
αARCH0.0800
9.13***
βGARCH0.9904
149.97***
νDF6.9369
1.89*

0.990

Persistence

72d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7105
1.51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0800
9.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9904
149.97***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9369
1.89*

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days