V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.66%
1 Week
13.83%
1 Month
14.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7105 | 1.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0800 | 9.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9904 | 149.97*** |
| νDF | 6.9369 | 1.89* |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7105 | 1.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0800 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9904 | 149.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9369 | 1.89* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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