V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
11.19%
1 Week
11.45%
1 Month
12.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7132 | 1.50 |
| αARCH | 0.0801 | 9.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9904 | 150.16*** |
| νDF | 6.9247 | 1.90* |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7132 | 1.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0801 | 9.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9904 | 150.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9247 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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