EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.05%
1 Week
16.15%
1 Month
16.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.7313 | 1.52 |
| αscore | 0.0809 | 9.32*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9905 | 152.29*** |
| νDF | 7.1374 | 1.85* |
0.991
Persistence73d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.7313 | 1.52 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0809 | 9.32*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9905 | 152.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1374 | 1.85* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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