V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.44%
increased by 0.63%
1 Week
16.54%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
16.89%
increased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7274 | 5.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0799 | 36.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9905 | 602.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9243 | 7.61*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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