EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
15.47%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
15.59%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
16.02%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 daysv = 6.95 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7114 | 1.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0800 | 9.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9904 | 150.19*** |
| νDF | 6.9489 | 1.89* |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7114 | 1.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0800 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9904 | 150.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9489 | 1.89* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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