EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
14.28%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
14.43%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
14.98%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7245 | 5.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0799 | 36.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9905 | 601.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9174 | 7.62*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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