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V-Lab

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

16.44%

increased by 0.63%

1 Week

16.54%

increased by 0.73%

1 Month

16.89%

increased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7274
5.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0799
36.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9905
602.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9243
7.61***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days